The Ledger · Medium — two to fifteen years

GP-13 Retirement past seventy, with no transition

Status: OPEN

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet: At least three G7 states legislate a retirement age above seventy, with no transitional arrangement for anyone under forty-five at the time.
Win: Three states enact it. Enactment counts, not the commencement date. Above seventy means strictly above.
Lose: Fewer than three G7 states enact it inside the band.
Expiry: Ten to fifteen years.
Check it: The OECD's pension survey.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as Seventy. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe: the seven G7 states listed under GP-12.
Source: the OECD Pensions at a Glance survey, published every two years, using its normal retirement age for a full-career entrant.
Definitions: above seventy means strictly greater than 70.0 years — "seventy or older" does not qualify; enacted means passed and promulgated, whatever the commencement date; without transition means no different age or compensation for anyone under forty-five at enactment.
Baseline: statutory and already-legislated future ages per state, printed.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded: Statutory and legislated future retirement ages, each G7 state
Value at publication: Normal retirement age for a man with a full career from age 22, retiring in 2024 → entering work in 2024 (Pensions at a Glance 2025, Figure 3.8): Canada 65 → 65 · France 64.25 → 65 · Germany 66.17 → 67 · Italy 64.83 → 70 · Japan 65 → 65 · United Kingdom 66 → 68 · United States 66.67 → 67; none above 70.0 (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 75% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026