The Ledger

The Rational Prophet · Book Four

This is the public scoreboard for The Rational Prophet. Every bet in the book is listed here with the source that settles it, the threshold that decides it and the date it expires, so anyone can check the score without taking the author's word for it.

The definitions were frozen at publication and are reproduced word for word from the book's Appendix A (the Ledger) and Appendix D (the Prediction Protocol). A score is recorded only when a bet's window closes or its condition is met, and the evidence is linked beside it. Until then a bet stays open.

The bets, their definitions, the baselines and the author’s probabilities are also pre-registered on the Open Science Framework, an independent archive that the author cannot edit afterwards: osf.io/7ev8k, DOI 10.17605/OSF.IO/7EV8K.

The score

Number of bets by status
OPEN	HIT	MISS	VOID
25	0	0	0

OPEN: the window has not closed.
HIT: the win condition was met inside the window.
MISS: the lose condition was met, or the window closed without the win condition.
VOID: the event the bet depends on never occurred, or the named source failed under the rule above. Never because the answer was disappointing.

GP-20 — withdrawn before publication. No public record captures the offers a party refuses, so the bet could not be scored as written.

The author’s probabilities

A hit says little if it was obvious, and a miss says little if it was a long shot. So each bet also carries the author’s probability that it scores HIT, stated before any window opened. They are not in the book, which keeps its scoring to HIT, MISS, OPEN and VOID; they are recorded here, registered on 10 October 2026 and frozen from then on.

As bets are scored, the probabilities are judged with the Brier score: for each bet, (probability − outcome)², with outcome 1 for a HIT and 0 for a MISS; VOID and OPEN bets do not count. Lower is better. Saying 50% on everything scores 0.25.

Brier score so far: none — no bet has been scored yet.

Near — one to five years

GP-01 Hormuz reopens on regional terms

Status: OPEN

The bet: When the Strait of Hormuz reopens under a formal arrangement, that arrangement is carried by regional states — with the United States, the incumbent hegemon at publication, neither a party nor a guarantor.
Win: A signed arrangement in force without the United States as party or named guarantor.
Lose: An arrangement with the United States as party or guarantor.
Expiry: Twenty-four months from publication. No formal arrangement at all scores VOID, not MISS.
Check it: Filings with the International Maritime Organization for the Strait of Hormuz, closed by Iran to normal commercial traffic when this book went to press; the signatories' own announcements.

Author’s probability 80% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources International Maritime Organization, statement of 15 June 2026

GP-02 A transit shock binds on food, not fuel

Status: OPEN

The bet: After the next qualifying transit disruption, the shock travels as a price cascade — fertiliser first, then food — that outruns the fuel price, rather than staying a fuel-price shock. The bet scores prices only: whether food itself runs short is not measured.
Win: Over four quarters, the fertiliser price rises by a larger percentage than crude, and the food index rises within two quarters of the fertiliser peak.
Lose: A qualifying disruption in which fertiliser and food prices rise by less than crude.
Expiry: Measured at the next disruption that begins after publication, over the four quarters after it. No such disruption within five years of publication scores VOID.
Check it: The FAO Food Price Index; the World Bank's urea and DAP series; the Brent benchmark.

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources FAO Food Price Index · World Bank commodity prices, monthly (urea, DAP, Brent)

GP-03 The silicon shield weakens in wording first

Status: OPEN

The bet: As advanced manufacturing moves out of Taiwan, the United States' stated commitment to Taiwan softens in language before it softens in conduct.
Win: The number of TSMC's plants at five nanometres or finer in volume production outside Taiwan at least doubles from baseline, and after that the language weakens by at least one level on the scale — a move up, from 0 towards 3 — in the same window.
Lose: The language weakens before the count has doubled, or the count doubles and the language holds or strengthens. A weakening before the doubling is a loss even if the count never doubles, and it comes before VOID. If the language weakens both before and after the doubling, the first weakening decides.
Expiry: One to three years. VOID only if the count does not double inside the window and the language has not weakened before the window closes.
Check it: TSMC's annual and quarterly reports to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, free on its EDGAR filing system — TSMC is the leading manufacturer at publication; four named categories of document issued by the United States government, scored on a four-point commitment scale printed at the back.

Author’s probability 70% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources Leading manufacturer's annual report, Form 20-F (SEC EDGAR) · Quarterly report, Form 6-K, second quarter 2026 (SEC EDGAR) · US National Security Strategy, 2025 edition · Taiwan Relations Act, 22 U.S.C. 3301

GP-04 Power becomes the binding constraint

Status: OPEN

The bet: Datacentre demand outruns the power available to carry it. In the largest US grid, where datacentres drive the growth in demand, the operator cannot buy enough capacity to meet its own reliability standard, auction after auction. The shortfall persists.
Win: Every base residual auction whose results are posted inside the window ends with committed capacity below the operator's reliability requirement.
Lose: Any auction inside the window meets or exceeds the requirement.
Expiry: One to three years. No auction inside the window, or an auction design that no longer states a reliability requirement, scores VOID.
Check it: The results report of each base residual capacity auction held by PJM Interconnection, the grid operator for thirteen US states, free on its website.

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources PJM base residual auction results report, 2028/2029 · PJM auction results release, 17 December 2025 · PJM auction results release, 14 July 2026

GP-05 Stablecoins deepen the dollar they were meant to escape

Status: OPEN

The bet: In China, the one economy that has declared de-dollarisation as policy and publishes its cross-border payments by currency, the share of its own cross-border payments made in renminbi rises, while the dollar's share of stablecoin settlement holds above ninety per cent. The two rails move in opposite directions.
Win: The renminbi share of cross-border payments in the twelve months to the reading is above its share in the last twelve months published before publication, while dollar stablecoins hold above ninety per cent of adjusted settlement and of supply in every month.
Lose: Either dollar share falls below ninety per cent, or the renminbi share does not rise.
Expiry: Twelve to twenty-four months.
Check it: The Visa Onchain Analytics dashboard, free and without sign-in, for adjusted settlement volume by token; DefiLlama's free stablecoin data for supply by currency; the monthly table of cross-border receipts and payments by currency from China's foreign exchange regulator.

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources Visa Onchain Analytics · DefiLlama stablecoin data · State Administration of Foreign Exchange, cross-border receipts and payments by currency

GP-06 Rearmament deepens the dependence it was meant to end

Status: OPEN

The bet: As European defence spending rises, new arms agreements signed with the United States government, measured against what the same states spend on equipment, hold at or above their average over the five years published before this book went to press.
Win: The share, averaged over the years first published inside the window, is at or above its five-year average at baseline, while equipment spending rises.
Lose: The share falls below that average while spending rises.
Expiry: Two to three years. If equipment spending does not rise, the bet scores VOID.
Check it: The US Defense Security Cooperation Agency's annual Historical Sales Book, for the value of agreements signed with each state; NATO's annual report on defence expenditure, for what each spends on equipment. Both free.

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources DSCA Historical Sales Book · NATO, Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2025)

GP-07 The credit break arrives quietly

Status: OPEN

The bet: The private-credit correction runs through gradual markdowns over many quarters rather than a single market-wide crash.
Win: Cumulative markdown above a fifth of the five portfolios, reached no sooner than the sixth quarter, with no quarter in which the high-yield spread closes above 1,000 basis points.
Lose: A single quarter in which the spread breaches that level, a cumulative markdown above a fifth reached before the sixth quarter, or a cumulative markdown below a fifth when the window closes.
Expiry: Three years.
Check it: Quarterly filings of the five largest listed business development companies, named at the back — fair-value marks, losses and payment-in-kind share; the ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread, series BAMLH0A0HYM2, free from the St Louis Fed.

Author’s probability 25% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources SEC EDGAR, investments at fair value by filer, second quarter 2026 · FRED, ICE BofA US High Yield spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)

GP-08 One Gulf monarchy keeps both patrons

Status: OPEN

The bet: A Gulf monarchy — one of the six GCC states — enters a formal defence arrangement with a non-Western great power, China or Russia, while keeping its existing Western guarantee from the United States, the United Kingdom or France in force.
Win: A signed arrangement carrying an assistance obligation, basing rights or joint command — with the Western guarantee intact and unrenounced.
Lose: No such arrangement in the window, or one that replaces rather than supplements.
Expiry: Two to three years.
Check it: Treaty texts, official announcements, UN registration.

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources Federal Register, 6 October 2025: Executive Order 14353 (Qatar) · UAE Embassy, UAE–US security cooperation · French Senate report on the UAE defence agreement · UK government, UK–Oman Joint Defence Agreement

GP-09 The periphery sets the terms on minerals

Status: OPEN

The bet: Export restrictions and processing mandates raise the processed share of export value in the major producer states: Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile.
Win: The processed share rises in at least two of the three, with the restrictions still in force.
Lose: The processed share rises in fewer than two of the three, or the restrictions are reversed under buyer pressure.
Expiry: Two to three years.
Check it: UN Comtrade for the customs headings printed in Appendix D, and the own customs statistics of the three countries: Indonesia for nickel, the Democratic Republic of the Congo for cobalt, Chile for copper.

Author’s probability 70% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources as named under Check it.

GP-10 Governments change; commitments persist

Status: OPEN

The bet: Across a transfer of power in a state at war, troop levels, arms transfers and sanctions lists each move by less than a fifth in the first year.
Win: None of the three moves more than a fifth within twelve months.
Lose: Any one of them moves sharply.
Expiry: At the next transfer of power in a state at war. None inside the band scores VOID.
Check it: Official defence reporting; national export-licence registers; official sanctions gazettes.

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources as named under Check it.

GP-11 Hedging stays free

Status: OPEN

The bet: India, the largest unaligned swing state at publication, deepens its ties with both blocs at once — arms, trade and energy — signs no mutual defence obligation with either, and pays no price either bloc can impose.
Win: All four hold: transfers from both blocs, trade rising with both, crude continuing from a sanctioned source alongside others, and no mutual defence obligation.
Lose: A mutual defence obligation is signed — or a bloc imposes a formal measure explicitly citing the other ties, and that flow falls by more than a fifth within twelve months.
Expiry: Three to five years.
Check it: The SIPRI arms transfers database; India's own trade ministry and petroleum import data; the UN Treaty Series. Bloc one is the United States and its treaty allies, bloc two Russia and China, as delimited at publication.

Author’s probability 75% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources SIPRI fact sheet, international arms transfers 2025 · India Export Import Data Bank, trade by country · India Export Import Data Bank, imports by commodity (crude, HS 2709)

GP-24 Compliance on time, coverage far behind

Status: OPEN

The bet: Nearly every member state of the European Union offers a certified wallet by the statutory deadline, while the share of adults actually holding one stays far below that a year later.
Win: At least four in five member states report a certified wallet available on time, and fewer than one in five adults hold an active wallet twelve months on.
Lose: Either half fails — widespread missed deadlines, or adoption above that level inside the year.
Expiry: Twelve months after the statutory deadline.
Check it: The list of certified wallets that the member states of the European Union notify and the European Commission publishes in the Official Journal; national adoption figures published by the issuing states.

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources EUR-Lex, Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/849

Medium — two to fifteen years

GP-12 The debt is repaid by repression, not default

Status: OPEN

The bet: The debt cycle resolves through negative real returns to savers rather than through default or a growth miracle.
Win: Real yields negative in the majority of years of the band, in at least three G7 states at once.
Lose: Sustained positive real yields alongside a falling debt ratio, or a large-scale formal restructuring.
Expiry: Five to fifteen years.
Check it: Ten-year sovereign yields from FRED and the OECD; the headline consumer price index of each national statistics office.

Author’s probability 75% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources FRED, OECD ten-year yield, United States (one series per state) · US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI · Statistics Canada, The Daily · ONS, consumer price inflation · Destatis, consumer prices · INSEE, consumer prices · Istat, consumer prices · Statistics Bureau of Japan, CPI

GP-13 Retirement past seventy, with no transition

Status: OPEN

The bet: At least three G7 states legislate a retirement age above seventy, with no transitional arrangement for anyone under forty-five at the time.
Win: Three states enact it. Enactment counts, not the commencement date. Above seventy means strictly above.
Lose: Fewer than three G7 states enact it inside the band.
Expiry: Ten to fifteen years.
Check it: The OECD's pension survey.

Author’s probability 75% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources OECD, Pensions at a Glance 2025: future retirement ages · OECD data for the retirement-age figure (StatLink)

GP-14 One more crisis of the 2008 class

Status: OPEN

The bet: Credit spreads blow past the level that has marked every systemic crisis of the modern era, while a central bank opens emergency facilities above five per cent of GDP.
Win: The spread closes above 1,000 basis points on any day, and emergency facilities exceed five per cent of GDP in at least one G7 state, inside the same four-quarter window.
Lose: The band closes without both conditions being met in the same window.
Expiry: Fifteen years from publication.
Check it: The ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread, published daily and free by the St Louis Fed as series BAMLH0A0HYM2; the balance-sheet reporting of the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the Eurosystem.

Author’s probability 90% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources FRED, ICE BofA US High Yield spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) · FRED, Federal Reserve total assets (WALCL) · Bank of Canada, balance sheet series · Bank of Japan, accounts · European Central Bank, Eurosystem balance sheet · Bank of England, weekly report

GP-15 They stop turning up, and nobody stopped them

Status: OPEN

The bet: Political participation falls across the band without a matching rise in repression. The incumbents did not have to suppress anyone; expected futility did the work.
Win: Average participation across the country set falls by at least 0.05 on the index, while average repression does not worsen by one standard deviation.
Lose: Average repression worsens by one standard deviation or more — then it is suppression, not demoralisation — or average participation does not fall by at least 0.05.
Expiry: Ten years, read annually.
Check it: V-Dem's participation index against its index of civil-society repression. Annual, free.

Author’s probability 75% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources V-Dem dataset · V-Dem archive of earlier versions

GP-16 The gains go to capital until they are taken

Status: OPEN

The bet: The labour share of income falls measurably faster in AI-intensive industries than in the rest, until redistribution is forced.
Win: The labour share of the AI-intensive industries falls by at least three percentage points more than that of the rest of the economy across the band, in the United States and in the European Union.
Lose: It falls by less than that in either economy.
Expiry: Ten years.
Check it: Compensation of employees and value added by industry, from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and from Eurostat, both free, over an industry list fixed at publication.

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources US Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP by Industry

GP-17 No verifiable objective, therefore no regime

Status: OPEN

The bet: No binding international instrument with a verification mechanism and a right of inspection enters into force, ratified by two of the three largest holders of compute at publication: the United States, China and the European Union.
Win: No such instrument inside the band.
Lose: Such an instrument enters into force.
Expiry: Fifteen years from publication.
Check it: The UN treaty registers and the Council of Europe Treaty Office.

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources Netherlands treaty database, Council of Europe convention CETS 225

GP-18 The dollar loses exclusivity, not first place

Status: OPEN

The bet: The dollar's share of official reserves falls below half while staying at least fifteen points ahead of the second currency.
Win: Both conditions in the same quarter.
Lose: The share stays at or above half throughout the band, or the lead over the second currency narrows below fifteen points.
Expiry: Fifteen years from publication, readable every quarter.
Check it: IMF COFER, quarterly, free.

Author’s probability 80% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources IMF, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER)

GP-19 Taiwan's status changes without a great-power war

Status: OPEN

The bet: Taiwan's status changes — by absorption, neutralisation or settled autonomy — without sustained combat between the two great powers, the United States and China.
Win: The status changes, and no engagement between their forces exceeds seven consecutive days or a hundred combat deaths on either side.
Lose: Either threshold is crossed, or the status is unchanged at expiry. Isolated incidents below it do not count.
Expiry: Fifteen years from publication.
Check it: Conflict event data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program plus official confirmation.

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources Uppsala Conflict Data Program, downloads

GP-21 Restraint holds where the taboo is rejected

Status: OPEN

The bet: A state that explicitly rejects the nuclear taboo in its own doctrine passes through an armed conflict without using the weapon — behaving no differently from states that uphold it.
Win: Read when the window closes, not at the first qualifying conflict: at least one such state has gone through an armed conflict, begun after publication, without use, and no detonation in conflict, by anyone, has occurred inside the window.
Lose: One detonation in conflict, by anyone, inside the window — even after a qualifying conflict has passed without use. No interpretation required.
Expiry: Two to ten years; the verdict is given when the window closes. No such state in an armed conflict begun inside the window, and no detonation, scores VOID.
Check it: Published nuclear doctrine; public confirmation of any detonation.

Author’s probability 90% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources Government of India, nuclear doctrine release of 4 January 2003

GP-25 The rail splits

Status: OPEN

The bet: No public digital currency is issued or piloted for public use in the first bloc, the United States, and its prohibition is still in force in some instrument, while the second bloc, the European Union, reaches a formal decision to issue or begins its pilot.
Win: Both halves hold at expiry.
Lose: The prohibition is revoked and a pilot or issuance for public use begins — or the European Union abandons issuance.
Expiry: Five years from publication, which spans at least one change of administration in the United States.
Check it: The US executive order and any revocation of it, plus any statute that replaces it; the European Central Bank's own published decisions and pilot reporting on the digital euro.

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources Federal Register, presidential documents for Executive Order 14178 · European Central Bank, Governing Council decisions of 2 October 2026

GP-26 Identity is the binding rail, not money

Status: OPEN

The bet: Mandatory acceptance of a state-issued digital credential reaches a majority of adults for at least one essential service, while no comparable use mandate exists for any public digital currency in either bloc, the United States or the European Union.
Win: Both halves hold inside the window.
Lose: The acceptance obligation is delayed or narrowed below that threshold, or a currency use mandate appears in either bloc.
Expiry: Five years from publication.
Check it: The acceptance obligations in force and their scope, in the United States, the European Union, India, Brazil and Nigeria; national reporting on the services covered; the UN World Population Prospects for the adult population.

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources as named under Check it.

Far — twenty to thirty-five years

GP-22 The postwar institutions hollow out

Status: OPEN

The bet: The share of world merchandise exports made by members that can still appeal a trade dispute, and the number of binding security-council resolutions, both fall below half their level at publication.
Win: Both fall below half.
Lose: Dispute settlement is restored, or binding capacity demonstrably increases.
Expiry: End of band, read each decade.
Check it: The WTO's annual merchandise export statistics, free on its WTO Stats portal, and the list of members party to the interim appeal arrangement; the UN Security Council's register of adopted resolutions.

Author’s probability 30% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources WTO, Appellate Body · European Commission, interim appeal arrangement membership · UN Security Council, Highlights of Security Council Practice 2025

GP-23 Paying for babies moves the timing, not the number

Status: OPEN

The bet: In states spending more than three per cent of GDP on family benefits for a decade, the women born in 2007 to 2009 — the first generation still under twenty when this book went to press — end their fertile years no more than 0.2 children above the level before the policy began. The money moves when children are born, not how many.
Win: No qualifying state exceeds its pre-policy level by more than 0.2.
Lose: One does.
Expiry: 2054, when the youngest of the three cohorts reaches forty-five — twenty-eight years — read from the first release that publishes that year's rates.
Check it: Eurostat's fertility rates by age, free, for completed cohort fertility, with the French statistics office, INSEE, for France; the OECD family database for spending.

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT.

Sources OECD Family Database, public spending on family benefits · INSEE, cumulative fertility by age and year of birth

Baselines at publication

This is the baseline sheet from Appendix D of the book, as it stands there. Each value was read from the source named for that bet on 10 October 2026, the publication date, and frozen there. The copy on this page stays unchanged, whatever later happens to the sources.

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

Bet	What is recorded	Value at publication
GP-01	Status of the Strait of Hormuz: arrangement in force, yes or no	No formal arrangement in force. Closed by Iran to normal commercial traffic since 28 February 2026; the Iran–United States memorandum of June 2026 has lapsed; on 7 October 2026 Iran and Oman announced agreed coordinates for transit routes, with no signed text in force and no filing shown by the International Maritime Organization (read 10 October 2026)
GP-02	Food price index · urea and DAP · crude benchmark, from the last release before publication	FAO Food Price Index 136.0 (2014–2016 = 100) · urea, E. Europe prill f.o.b. Middle East, $407.5/mt · DAP f.o.b. US Gulf, $800.6/mt · Brent $116.8/bbl — all September 2026, the last month published before the publication date (the index from the FAO release of 2 October 2026, the three commodity series from the Pink Sheet of 2 October 2026) (read 10 October 2026)
GP-03	TSMC plants at five nanometres or finer in volume production outside Taiwan · language level 0–3, with the passage that sets it quoted	One plant: the first facility at TSMC's Arizona site (Fab 21, listed at five nanometres), in high-volume production since the end of 2024; the second Arizona facility is under construction, not in volume production (annual report on Form 20-F for 2025, and every filing since, to 8 October 2026). Language level 1, set by the national security strategy of November 2025: "deterring a conflict over Taiwan, ideally by preserving military overmatch, is a priority", with the aim of "reinforcing U.S. and allies' capacity to deny any attempt to seize Taiwan" — support and deterrence, without naming military action in response to an attack (read 10 October 2026)
GP-04	Shortfall against the reliability requirement, last two base residual auctions	2027/2028 auction (results posted 17 December 2025): 145,777.1 MW committed, 6,516.6 MW below the reliability requirement of 152,400 MW, as the results report states it, having subtracted 106.5 MW of price-responsive demand from the requirement (its footnote 1); the plain difference is 6,622.9 MW, and the same report gives 6,623.2 MW short of the installed reserve margin. Either way the auction is short · 2028/2029 auction (results posted 14 July 2026): 149,181.6 MW committed, 6,831.3 MW below the reliability requirement of 156,013 MW; all figures unforced megawatts, from PJM's results reports (read 10 October 2026)
GP-05	Dollar share of adjusted stablecoin settlement · dollar share of stablecoin supply · renminbi share of cross-border receipts and payments, over the last twelve months published before publication	Dollar share of adjusted stablecoin settlement 99.89% (September 2026, the last full month; $324.6bn adjusted, of which $0.35bn in euro tokens) · dollar share of stablecoin supply 99.46% (DefiLlama, total circulating in US dollars across every peg, 10 October 2026) · renminbi share of cross-border receipts and payments 51.27% (SAFE, September 2025 to August 2026, the last twelve months published before publication) (read 10 October 2026)
GP-06	US government-to-government agreements as a share of equipment spending: five most recent years published, and their average, from the editions current at publication	2020: 14.2% · 2021: 12.0% · 2022: 24.5% · 2023: 26.7% · 2024: 33.1% · average 22.1%. Agreements: total authorised value of implemented FMS and FMF cases, US fiscal years 2020–2024, Historical Sales Book, fiscal year 2024 edition; equipment spending: core defence expenditure in current US dollars times the equipment share, calendar years 2020–2024, NATO edition of July 2026; 25 states, Finland and Sweden included in every year. Equipment spending of the same states in the latest year published, 2026 (estimate): $231.6 billion (read 10 October 2026)
GP-07	The five lenders and the quarter they were drawn from · aggregate fair-value mark and payment-in-kind share, each of the five lenders and together · level of the §3.9 series	Drawn from the reports for the quarter ended 30 June 2026: Ares Capital · Blue Owl Capital Corporation · Blue Owl Technology Finance · Blackstone Secured Lending · FS KKR Capital. Fair value as a share of amortised cost 0.989 · 0.990 · 0.979 · 0.964 · 0.906, together 0.971 ($83.77bn against $86.25bn). Payment-in-kind share of investment income, from the statements of cash flows, first half of 2026: 15.5% · 10.7% · 12.5% · 6.6% · 13.5%, together 12.5%. High-yield spread 3.15%, or 315 basis points, on 8 October 2026, the latest value published (read 10 October 2026)
GP-08	Every existing defence arrangement of the six Gulf states	No formal defence arrangement of any of the six states with China or Russia. Western, in force: Bahrain — US and UK naval basing, and the 2023 security agreement with the United States, joined by the United Kingdom in 2025 (consultation, no assistance obligation); Kuwait — US basing under the 1991 agreement, and the 1992 defence agreement with France, completed by a 2022 agreement on stationing French forces; Oman — US access agreements since 1980 and the 2019 joint defence agreement with the United Kingdom; Qatar — US basing under the 1992 agreement and a unilateral US security assurance by executive order of 29 September 2025; Saudi Arabia — the strategic defence agreement with the United States of 18 November 2025, text unpublished; UAE — the US defence cooperation agreement in force since 2019 and the 2009 French defence agreement with an engagement clause and a French base. Counting for neither side: Saudi Arabia's mutual defence pacts with Pakistan (17 September 2025) and with Pakistan and Türkiye (7 August 2026); Qatar's defence agreement with Türkiye. Several texts are unpublished, so the list rests partly on official statements (read 10 October 2026)
GP-09	Processed share of export value: Indonesia, DRC, Chile, each in its latest year in UN Comtrade at publication	Processed share of export value on all the headings in §3.2, UN Comtrade: Indonesia 85.4% (2025), Democratic Republic of the Congo 91.8% (2024, the latest year published for it), Chile 33.6% (2025) (read 10 October 2026)
GP-10	(read at the next transfer of power, not now)	—
GP-11	Arms transfers, trade, crude imports by origin, treaty obligations · the sanctioned sources at publication	Arms, SIPRI trend-indicator values 2021–25: bloc two 5,010 million (Russia only; 40%), bloc one 5,550 million (44%; France 29%, United States 7.9%), of 12,666 million in all; deliveries from both blocs in 2025. Trade, financial year 2025–26: $412.2 billion with bloc one and $243.4 billion with bloc two, both higher than in 2024–25 ($400.3 billion and $222.2 billion). Crude oil by value, 2025–26: Russia 30.3%, Iraq 17.1%, Saudi Arabia 14.5%, UAE 11.2%, United States 7.3%; April–July 2026, the latest months published: Russia 44.7%, Iran 1.1%. Sanctioned sources at publication: Russia (United States, European Union, United Kingdom) and Iran (United States); Venezuela is not counted, because its crude exports have been authorised under US general licences since January 2026, although the US sanctions on its government remain in force. No mutual defence obligation with any state of either bloc (read 10 October 2026)
GP-12	Real ten-year yield, each G7 state, latest month with both inputs for all seven	August 2026, the ten-year yield (OECD monthly average) minus the official annual consumer price inflation rate: United States 1.28 · Canada 0.68 · United Kingdom 1.89 · Germany 0.28 · France 1.60 · Italy 0.69 · Japan 1.04 percentage points; no state negative (read 10 October 2026)
GP-13	Statutory and legislated future retirement ages, each G7 state	Normal retirement age for a man with a full career from age 22, retiring in 2024 → entering work in 2024 (Pensions at a Glance 2025, Figure 3.8): Canada 65 → 65 · France 64.25 → 65 · Germany 66.17 → 67 · Italy 64.83 → 70 · Japan 65 → 65 · United Kingdom 66 → 68 · United States 66.67 → 67; none above 70.0 (read 10 October 2026)
GP-14	High-yield spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2) · total assets as share of GDP: Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Eurosystem	Spread 3.15%, or 315 basis points, on 8 October 2026, the latest value published · total assets as a share of nominal GDP at an annual rate: Federal Reserve 20.7% (7 October 2026) · Bank of Canada 6.9% (7 October 2026) · Bank of Japan 90.7% (30 September 2026) · Eurosystem 36.1% of euro-area GDP (2 October 2026) · Bank of England 28.2% (30 June 2025, the latest total it had published, against GDP for that quarter); the others against GDP for the second quarter of 2026, the latest published (read 10 October 2026)
GP-15	Participation and repression indices, per state, for the baseline year · both averages and the sample standard deviation · the set of states	V-Dem Country-Year dataset, Core, version 16 (March 2026), the edition current at publication; baseline year 2025. Set: the 174 states, as defined in §3.10, carrying both scores in every year 2016–2025, listed below this table. Averages for 2025: participatory component index 0.4700; civil society repression 0.6521 (higher means less repression); sample standard deviation of repression across the set 1.5791 (read 10 October 2026)
GP-16	Labour share, treatment and comparison groups, United States and European Union, with the year read for each · the industry lines · the member states counted	United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis, components of value added by industry, release of 30 September 2026, year 2025: labour share 55.4% in the treatment group and 46.1% in the comparison group. European Union, Eurostat, gross value added and income by detailed industry, as updated 8 October 2026, year 2023, the latest year with union-wide detail for these lines: labour share 57.7% in the treatment group and 50.4% in the comparison group, summed over the 23 member states that publish every treatment line for that year — Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. Industry lines as in §3.3 (read 10 October 2026)
GP-17	Instruments in force: none, or which	No binding instrument in force carrying a verification mechanism and a right of inspection. The Council of Europe convention on artificial intelligence is not in force, with one ratification, by the European Union on 15 May 2026, and carries no right of inspection (read 10 October 2026)
GP-18	Dollar share of total reserves as reported in COFER · runner-up share	US dollar 56.70% of total reserves; the euro, as runner-up, 20.60% — second quarter of 2026, the last quarter published before the publication date (COFER release of 30 September 2026) (read 10 October 2026)
GP-19	Status of Taiwan	Taiwan's status unchanged: no absorption, neutralisation or settled autonomy as defined in §2, and no engagement between the forces of the United States and China (read 10 October 2026)
GP-21	Doctrinal position of each nuclear-armed state with a published doctrine · the armed conflicts already running at publication to which a state in the universe is party, which do not count for a HIT, among them Russia's war against Ukraine	First use open in published doctrine — the universe's states that reject the taboo: United States (nuclear posture review, October 2022; the review of 2026 has not been published); Russia (deterrence fundamentals, 19 November 2024); United Kingdom (integrated review, 2021: use "only in extreme circumstances of self-defence", deliberately ambiguous); France (presidential addresses of 7 February 2020 and 2 March 2026, keeping open "a single and non-renewable nuclear warning"); India (no first use, except in response to a major biological or chemical attack, 2003); North Korea (nuclear forces law, 8 September 2022). No first use without exception: China (defence white paper, 2019). Outside the universe, having published no doctrine: Pakistan and Israel. Armed conflicts already running at publication, which do not count for a HIT: Russia's war against Ukraine; the war between the United States and Iran begun on 28 February 2026, with US strikes on Iran on 1 September 2026 and a US naval blockade still enforced on 5 October 2026 (read 10 October 2026)
GP-22	Share of world merchandise exports originating in members party to a working appeal · binding resolutions per year	Merchandise exports of the members party to the interim appeal arrangement: 69.0% of world merchandise exports in 2025, the latest year on the WTO Stats portal (US$18,132,069 million of US$26,275,037 million), for the 35 parties on the WTO's list with the European Union counted as its 27 member states; Liechtenstein, which the portal does not report separately, is not counted · Appellate Body without members since 30 November 2020 · Security Council resolutions adopted in 2025: 44, of which 24 explicitly under Chapter VII (read 10 October 2026)
GP-23	The list of qualifying states · policy start, pre-policy cohorts and pre-policy level, each state	Qualifying states (OECD Family Database, public spending on family benefits, edition updated February 2025; total of cash, services and tax measures above 3% of GDP in every published year 2012–2021, France's unpublished 2012 passed over): Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Luxembourg, Sweden. Policy start · pre-policy cohorts · pre-policy level, completed fertility to age 45 from Eurostat (France: INSEE, metropolitan France): Belgium 2007 · 1959–1961 · 1.86; Denmark 2001 · 1953–1955 · 1.85; France 2001 · 1953–1955 · 2.12; Iceland 2007 · 1959–1961 · 2.47; Luxembourg 2008 · 1960–1962 · 1.76; Sweden 2002 · 1954–1956 · 2.03. For Denmark and France the policy start is the first year the spending series publishes (read 10 October 2026)
GP-24	Member states with a wallet on the Commission's published list of certified wallets · adoption figure where published	None: no list of certified European Digital Identity Wallets had been published in the Official Journal; the statutory deadline is 24 December 2026; no adoption figure for a certified wallet exists (read 10 October 2026)
GP-25	Prohibition and its stated expiry · regulation and pilot stage	Prohibition in force by executive order of 23 January 2025, with no stated expiry and no revoking order; the bill to enact it passed the House on 17 July 2025 and again, attached to S. 1318, on 29 April 2026, the Senate rejected a motion to proceed on 5 June 2026, and it was not enacted. Digital euro regulation not adopted; thirty-six payment providers selected on 14 July 2026 for a pilot due to start in the second half of 2027; pilot not started; no issuance decision taken (read 10 October 2026)
GP-26	Acceptance obligations in force · adults aged 18 and over in the universe (UN World Population Prospects)	No acceptance obligation in force in the European Union or the United States. European Union: private providers in banking, health, social security, telecommunications and other sectors must accept the digital identity wallet at the user's request from 24 December 2027 (Regulation (EU) 2024/1183, Article 5f). United States: no federal obligation. Brazil: none in the federal identity laws (Laws 13.444/2017, 14.129/2021 and 14.534/2023; Decree 10.977/2022), which make the identity card valid for all legal purposes but oblige no provider to accept it. India: banks must verify a customer's identity by one of four modes, Aadhaar authentication among them, the mode being the customer's choice (Prevention of Money-laundering Act, section 11A, inserted in 2019). Nigeria: any organisation handling a listed transaction, among them opening a bank account, health insurance and government services, must ask for the identity card or the National Identification Number (National Identity Management Commission Act 2007, section 27(2)). Under §2 the Indian and Nigerian duties are duties to identify, not to accept the state credential, and do not count; no acceptance obligation is in force in the universe. Adults aged 18 and over on 1 July 2026, UN World Population Prospects 2024, medium variant: 1,989.8 million in the universe — European Union 370.8, United States 276.8, India 1,049.6, Brazil 164.1, Nigeria 128.4 — so a majority is more than 994.9 million (read 10 October 2026)

Not investment advice. The bets describe what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026