The Ledger · Near — one to five years

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet

When the Strait of Hormuz reopens under a formal arrangement, that arrangement is carried by regional states — with the United States, the incumbent hegemon at publication, neither a party nor a guarantor.

Win

A signed arrangement in force without the United States as party or named guarantor.

Lose

An arrangement with the United States as party or guarantor.

Expiry

Twenty-four months from publication. No formal arrangement at all scores VOID, not MISS.

Check it

Filings with the International Maritime Organization for the Strait of Hormuz, closed by Iran to normal commercial traffic when this book went to press; the signatories' own announcements.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as Hormuz. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe

the next formal transit arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz, whoever initiates it. At publication Hormuz is closed by Iran to normal commercial traffic, and the incumbent hegemon is the United States.

Source

filings with the International Maritime Organization; signatories' announcements.

Definitions

a formal arrangement is a written interstate agreement with an identifiable entry into force — practice without text does not count; a guarantor is named as such in the text.

Baseline

no arrangement; passage under de facto control.

Note

expiry without any formal arrangement scores VOID.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded

Status of the Strait of Hormuz: arrangement in force, yes or no

Value at publication

No formal arrangement in force. Closed by Iran to normal commercial traffic since 28 February 2026; the Iran–United States memorandum of June 2026 has lapsed; on 7 October 2026 Iran and Oman announced agreed coordinates for transit routes, with no signed text in force and no filing shown by the International Maritime Organization (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 80% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

• International Maritime Organization, statement of 15 June 2026

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026