The Ledger · Near — one to five years

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet

After the next qualifying transit disruption, the shock travels as a price cascade — fertiliser first, then food — that outruns the fuel price, rather than staying a fuel-price shock. The bet scores prices only: whether food itself runs short is not measured.

Win

Over four quarters, the fertiliser price rises by a larger percentage than crude, and the food index rises within two quarters of the fertiliser peak.

Lose

A qualifying disruption in which fertiliser and food prices rise by less than crude.

Expiry

Measured at the next disruption that begins after publication, over the four quarters after it. No such disruption within five years of publication scores VOID.

Check it

The FAO Food Price Index; the World Bank's urea and DAP series; the Brent benchmark.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as The cascade. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe

the first interruption of a major energy transit route that begins after the publication date and affects more than a tenth of seaborne oil or gas flows for more than thirty consecutive days. The qualifier matters, because an interruption, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, was already running when this book went to press and several quarters of its effect were visible. Scoring on that episode would be scoring on data the author had already seen, which is the practice this book was written against. Its figures are printed with the baseline as an illustration and are not part of the bet.

Source

the FAO Food Price Index, monthly, nominal, on the base period the publisher uses at publication; the urea and DAP series in the World Bank Commodity Price Data, monthly, US dollars per tonne; Brent crude in that same publication, monthly average, US dollars per barrel.

Calculation

index at the start of the interruption set to 100; compare percentage change after four quarters; the food index must rise within two quarters of the fertiliser peak.

Baseline

all three series, from the last release published before the publication date.

Note

the bet scores prices; whether food itself runs short is not measured. No qualifying interruption within five years of publication scores VOID.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded

Food price index · urea and DAP · crude benchmark, from the last release before publication

Value at publication

FAO Food Price Index 136.0 (2014–2016 = 100) · urea, E. Europe prill f.o.b. Middle East, $407.5/mt · DAP f.o.b. US Gulf, $800.6/mt · Brent $116.8/bbl — all September 2026, the last month published before the publication date (the index from the FAO release of 2 October 2026, the three commodity series from the Pink Sheet of 2 October 2026) (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

• FAO Food Price Index
• World Bank commodity prices, monthly (urea, DAP, Brent)

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026