The Ledger · Near — one to five years

GP-04 Power becomes the binding constraint

Status: OPEN

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet: Datacentre demand outruns the power available to carry it. In the largest US grid, where datacentres drive the growth in demand, the operator cannot buy enough capacity to meet its own reliability standard, auction after auction. The shortfall persists.
Win: Every base residual auction whose results are posted inside the window ends with committed capacity below the operator's reliability requirement.
Lose: Any auction inside the window meets or exceeds the requirement.
Expiry: One to three years. No auction inside the window, or an auction design that no longer states a reliability requirement, scores VOID.
Check it: The results report of each base residual capacity auction held by PJM Interconnection, the grid operator for thirteen US states, free on its website.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as The constraint. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe: the base residual capacity auctions of PJM Interconnection, the grid operator named in §3.8, whose results are posted inside the window.
Source: the operator's results report for each auction, which sets the capacity committed — through the auction and through fixed resource requirement plans — against the reliability requirement for the delivery year.
Definitions: short means total committed capacity, in unforced megawatts, below the reliability requirement, as the results report states it. An auction belongs to the window by the date its results are posted, whatever delivery year it covers.
Calculation: one test per auction; the bet wins only if every auction in the window is short.
Baseline: the shortfall in the last two auctions before publication.
Note: no auction inside the window, or an auction design that no longer states a reliability requirement, scores VOID.
Known weakness: this is one grid, not every grid, and it shows that power is short. Whether chips also bind is not scored. It was chosen because it is the clearest free, primary and regular measure that sets datacentre demand against the power available to carry it.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded: Shortfall against the reliability requirement, last two base residual auctions
Value at publication: 2027/2028 auction (results posted 17 December 2025): 145,777.1 MW committed, 6,516.6 MW below the reliability requirement of 152,400 MW, as the results report states it, having subtracted 106.5 MW of price-responsive demand from the requirement (its footnote 1); the plain difference is 6,622.9 MW, and the same report gives 6,623.2 MW short of the installed reserve margin. Either way the auction is short · 2028/2029 auction (results posted 14 July 2026): 149,181.6 MW committed, 6,831.3 MW below the reliability requirement of 156,013 MW; all figures unforced megawatts, from PJM's results reports (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026