The Ledger · Near — one to five years

GP-08 One Gulf monarchy keeps both patrons

Status: OPEN

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet: A Gulf monarchy — one of the six GCC states — enters a formal defence arrangement with a non-Western great power, China or Russia, while keeping its existing Western guarantee from the United States, the United Kingdom or France in force.
Win: A signed arrangement carrying an assistance obligation, basing rights or joint command — with the Western guarantee intact and unrenounced.
Lose: No such arrangement in the window, or one that replaces rather than supplements.
Expiry: Two to three years.
Check it: Treaty texts, official announcements, UN registration.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as Both patrons. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe: the six Gulf Cooperation Council states: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Source: treaty texts, official announcements, registration with the United Nations where applicable.
Definitions: a formal defence arrangement carries a mutual or unilateral assistance obligation, basing rights, or joint command — arms purchases alone do not count; a Western guarantee is a defence treaty or formal defence agreement with the United States, the United Kingdom or France; the qualifying non-Western great powers are named in §3.6; an arrangement with any other state, such as Pakistan or Türkiye, counts as neither. The mutual defence pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan of 2025, extended in a three-way pact with Türkiye in August 2026, existed at publication and counts for neither side.
Baseline: every existing arrangement of each of the six states, printed.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded: Every existing defence arrangement of the six Gulf states
Value at publication: No formal defence arrangement of any of the six states with China or Russia. Western, in force: Bahrain — US and UK naval basing, and the 2023 security agreement with the United States, joined by the United Kingdom in 2025 (consultation, no assistance obligation); Kuwait — US basing under the 1991 agreement, and the 1992 defence agreement with France, completed by a 2022 agreement on stationing French forces; Oman — US access agreements since 1980 and the 2019 joint defence agreement with the United Kingdom; Qatar — US basing under the 1992 agreement and a unilateral US security assurance by executive order of 29 September 2025; Saudi Arabia — the strategic defence agreement with the United States of 18 November 2025, text unpublished; UAE — the US defence cooperation agreement in force since 2019 and the 2009 French defence agreement with an engagement clause and a French base. Counting for neither side: Saudi Arabia's mutual defence pacts with Pakistan (17 September 2025) and with Pakistan and Türkiye (7 August 2026); Qatar's defence agreement with Türkiye. Several texts are unpublished, so the list rests partly on official statements (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026