The Ledger · Near — one to five years

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet

Export restrictions and processing mandates raise the processed share of export value in the major producer states: Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile.

Win

The processed share rises in at least two of the three, with the restrictions still in force.

Lose

The processed share rises in fewer than two of the three, or the restrictions are reversed under buyer pressure.

Expiry

Two to three years.

Check it

UN Comtrade for the customs headings printed in Appendix D, and the own customs statistics of the three countries: Indonesia for nickel, the Democratic Republic of the Congo for cobalt, Chile for copper.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as Upstream margin. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe

the leading producer state for each of nickel, cobalt and copper, named in §3.2: Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Chile.

Source

UN Comtrade for the headings in §3.2, and the three states' own customs authorities where Comtrade lags.

Definitions

processed and unprocessed products are the commodity headings listed in §3.2; ore and concentrate count as unprocessed.

Calculation

for each state, export value under all the processed headings in §3.2, divided by export value under all the headings in §3.2, processed and unprocessed together. Every listed heading counts for every state, not only the headings of its own metal.

Baseline

processed share of export value per state, in the latest calendar year UN Comtrade publishes for that state at publication, with the year printed beside it. Each later reading sets a state's latest year against its own baseline year.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded

Processed share of export value: Indonesia, DRC, Chile, each in its latest year in UN Comtrade at publication

Value at publication

Processed share of export value on all the headings in §3.2, UN Comtrade: Indonesia 85.4% (2025), Democratic Republic of the Congo 91.8% (2024, the latest year published for it), Chile 33.6% (2025) (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 70% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

As named under Check it.

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026