The Ledger · Near — one to five years

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet

Across a transfer of power in a state at war, troop levels, arms transfers and sanctions lists each move by less than a fifth in the first year.

Win

None of the three moves more than a fifth within twelve months.

Lose

Any one of them moves sharply.

Expiry

At the next transfer of power in a state at war. None inside the band scores VOID.

Check it

Official defence reporting; national export-licence registers; official sanctions gazettes.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as Continuity. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe

transfers of executive power to a different party or coalition, in states party to an armed conflict on the conflict register of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) at the time.

Source

official defence reporting; national export-licence registers; official sanctions gazettes.

Definitions

substantial change means more than a fifth in twelve months in at least one of the three series.

Baseline

read at the transfer, not at publication.

Note

no transfer inside the band scores VOID.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded

(read at the next transfer of power, not now)

Value at publication

—

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

As named under Check it.

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026