The Ledger · Near — one to five years

GP-11 Hedging stays free

Status: OPEN

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet: India, the largest unaligned swing state at publication, deepens its ties with both blocs at once — arms, trade and energy — signs no mutual defence obligation with either, and pays no price either bloc can impose.
Win: All four hold: transfers from both blocs, trade rising with both, crude continuing from a sanctioned source alongside others, and no mutual defence obligation.
Lose: A mutual defence obligation is signed — or a bloc imposes a formal measure explicitly citing the other ties, and that flow falls by more than a fifth within twelve months.
Expiry: Three to five years.
Check it: The SIPRI arms transfers database; India's own trade ministry and petroleum import data; the UN Treaty Series. Bloc one is the United States and its treaty allies, bloc two Russia and China, as delimited at publication.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as Free hedging. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe: one state, named in §3.5, India: the largest economy holding no mutual defence obligation with either bloc and pursuing that as declared policy.
Source: the SIPRI Arms Transfers Database — appropriate here, where transfers are what is measured; India's own trade ministry statistics; its own petroleum import data by origin; the United Nations treaty series.
Definitions: blocs are delimited at publication by the rule in §3.5 — bloc one is the United States and its treaty allies, bloc two the Russian Federation and the People's Republic of China; a sanctioned source is a state whose crude oil exports were under sanctions at publication imposed by the United Nations Security Council or by a member of bloc one, and the sanctioned sources are named with the baseline, Russia and Iran among them; a mutual defence obligation is a treaty text with an assistance clause — partnerships, dialogues and joint exercises do not count; a price it pays means a formal measure expressly citing ties to the other bloc, followed by a fall of more than a fifth in that flow within twelve months.
Baseline: all four series.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded: Arms transfers, trade, crude imports by origin, treaty obligations · the sanctioned sources at publication
Value at publication: Arms, SIPRI trend-indicator values 2021–25: bloc two 5,010 million (Russia only; 40%), bloc one 5,550 million (44%; France 29%, United States 7.9%), of 12,666 million in all; deliveries from both blocs in 2025. Trade, financial year 2025–26: $412.2 billion with bloc one and $243.4 billion with bloc two, both higher than in 2024–25 ($400.3 billion and $222.2 billion). Crude oil by value, 2025–26: Russia 30.3%, Iraq 17.1%, Saudi Arabia 14.5%, UAE 11.2%, United States 7.3%; April–July 2026, the latest months published: Russia 44.7%, Iran 1.1%. Sanctioned sources at publication: Russia (United States, European Union, United Kingdom) and Iran (United States); Venezuela is not counted, because its crude exports have been authorised under US general licences since January 2026, although the US sanctions on its government remain in force. No mutual defence obligation with any state of either bloc (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 75% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026