The Ledger · Medium — two to fifteen years

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet

The labour share of income falls measurably faster in AI-intensive industries than in the rest, until redistribution is forced.

Win

The labour share of the AI-intensive industries falls by at least three percentage points more than that of the rest of the economy across the band, in the United States and in the European Union.

Lose

It falls by less than that in either economy.

Expiry

Ten years.

Check it

Compensation of employees and value added by industry, from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and from Eurostat, both free, over an industry list fixed at publication.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as The labour share. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe

see §1.2 and §3.3.

Source

for the United States, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP by Industry, components of value added by industry, annual; for the European Union, Eurostat, gross value added and income by detailed industry, annual. Both are free.

Definitions

labour share is compensation of employees divided by gross value added, both at current prices. For a group it is the sum of compensation over the sum of value added, not an average of industry ratios. The income of the self-employed is not compensation and is not counted. A group's fall is its share in the year read at publication minus its share in the year read at the end of the band, worked out separately for the United States and for the European Union; a share that rises has a negative fall. Measurably faster means the treatment group's share falls by at least three percentage points more than the comparison group's, in both economies. The bet is on that difference between the two falls, not on the distance between the two shares: at publication the treatment group's share is the higher of the two in both economies, so a distance would shrink while the bet was being won.

Calculation

for each economy, the treatment group's fall minus the comparison group's fall. For the United States the year read is the latest year published; for the European Union it is set by the rule in §3.3.

Baseline

labour share per group, for each economy, with the year read, the line list and the list of member states printed.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded

Labour share, treatment and comparison groups, United States and European Union, with the year read for each · the industry lines · the member states counted

Value at publication

United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis, components of value added by industry, release of 30 September 2026, year 2025: labour share 55.4% in the treatment group and 46.1% in the comparison group. European Union, Eurostat, gross value added and income by detailed industry, as updated 8 October 2026, year 2023, the latest year with union-wide detail for these lines: labour share 57.7% in the treatment group and 50.4% in the comparison group, summed over the 23 member states that publish every treatment line for that year — Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain. Industry lines as in §3.3 (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

• US Bureau of Economic Analysis, GDP by Industry

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026