The Laws of
Game Theory

The Ledger · Medium — two to fifteen years

GP-17 No verifiable objective, therefore no regime

Status: OPEN

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet
No binding international instrument with a verification mechanism and a right of inspection enters into force, ratified by two of the three largest holders of compute at publication: the United States, China and the European Union.
Win
No such instrument inside the band.
Lose
Such an instrument enters into force.
Expiry
Fifteen years from publication.
Check it
The UN treaty registers and the Council of Europe Treaty Office.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as No regime. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe
the three jurisdictions with the largest installed compute at publication, named in §3.7: the United States, the People's Republic of China and the European Union.
Source
the United Nations treaty registers and the Council of Europe Treaty Office. Both are named because the only candidate instrument at publication is a Council of Europe convention, and a treaty reaches the United Nations register only after it has entered into force.
Definitions
a binding instrument has entered into force and carries a verification mechanism and a right of inspection; declarations, codes of conduct and voluntary commitments do not count.
Baseline
no such instrument.
Note
only the instrument is scored. A major builder that publishes a checkable definition of its objective, submits to external audit against it and keeps raising capital would also undercut the mechanism, but it is a different event, and it is not scored.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded
Instruments in force: none, or which
Value at publication
No binding instrument in force carrying a verification mechanism and a right of inspection. The Council of Europe convention on artificial intelligence is not in force, with one ratification, by the European Union on 15 May 2026, and carries no right of inspection (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026