The Ledger · Medium — two to fifteen years

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet

The dollar's share of official reserves falls below half while staying at least fifteen points ahead of the second currency.

Win

Both conditions in the same quarter.

Lose

The share stays at or above half throughout the band, or the lead over the second currency narrows below fifteen points.

Expiry

Fifteen years from publication, readable every quarter.

Check it

IMF COFER, quarterly, free.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as Exclusivity. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe

the currencies reported separately in the IMF Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves survey.

Source

that survey, quarterly and free.

Definitions

share means the share of total reserves as reported in COFER. Until 2025 the survey separated allocated from unallocated reserves; since its release for the third quarter of 2025 the IMF estimates the currency of the formerly unallocated part and reports one total, revised back through the series. That change came before publication, so the revised series is the one this bet is made against.

Calculation

both conditions must hold in the same quarter.

Baseline

the US dollar's share and the runner-up's in the last quarter before publication.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded

Dollar share of total reserves as reported in COFER · runner-up share

Value at publication

US dollar 56.70% of total reserves; the euro, as runner-up, 20.60% — second quarter of 2026, the last quarter published before the publication date (COFER release of 30 September 2026) (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 80% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

• IMF, Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER)

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026