The Ledger · Medium — two to fifteen years

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet

Taiwan's status changes — by absorption, neutralisation or settled autonomy — without sustained combat between the two great powers, the United States and China.

Win

The status changes, and no engagement between their forces exceeds seven consecutive days or a hundred combat deaths on either side.

Lose

Either threshold is crossed, or the status is unchanged at expiry. Isolated incidents below it do not count.

Expiry

Fifteen years from publication.

Check it

Conflict event data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program plus official confirmation.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as Taiwan. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe

the forces of the incumbent and the challenger — the United States and the People's Republic of China at publication — and Taiwan. The guarantor is the United States; the strait is the Taiwan Strait.

Source

the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, plus official confirmation by either state.

Definitions

a change of status means absorption, neutralisation or settled autonomy, as defined here, and nothing else counts. Absorption means China's central government exercises administrative authority on Taiwan: it appoints or confirms Taiwan's executive, or its laws apply there. Neutralisation means a published treaty, statute or joint statement under which Taiwan hosts no foreign forces and the United States ends arms transfers and military cooperation with it, while Taiwan keeps its own government. Settled autonomy means a signed agreement between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait under which Taiwan accepts that it belongs to one state with China, and keeps its own government, laws and security forces. A great-power war means engagement between the two forces exceeding seven consecutive days, or more than one hundred combat deaths on either side. Isolated incidents below that line do not count.

Baseline

Taiwan's status.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded

Status of Taiwan

Value at publication

Taiwan's status unchanged: no absorption, neutralisation or settled autonomy as defined in §2, and no engagement between the forces of the United States and China (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

• Uppsala Conflict Data Program, downloads

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026