The Ledger · Medium — two to fifteen years

GP-25 The rail splits

Status: OPEN

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet: No public digital currency is issued or piloted for public use in the first bloc, the United States, and its prohibition is still in force in some instrument, while the second bloc, the European Union, reaches a formal decision to issue or begins its pilot.
Win: Both halves hold at expiry.
Lose: The prohibition is revoked and a pilot or issuance for public use begins — or the European Union abandons issuance.
Expiry: Five years from publication, which spans at least one change of administration in the United States.
Check it: The US executive order and any revocation of it, plus any statute that replaces it; the European Central Bank's own published decisions and pilot reporting on the digital euro.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as The split rail. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe: the two blocs only — the first bloc is the United States, the second the European Union, whose central bank is building the digital euro; third-country digital currencies are outside it.
Source: the US executive order in the Federal Register, together with any revoking order or enacted statute; the European Central Bank's published decisions and pilot reporting.
Definitions: still in force means a prohibition on establishing or issuing a public digital currency binds the relevant agencies at expiry, whether by executive order or by statute — the instrument may change, the prohibition may not lapse; issued or piloted for public use means available to members of the public, so an internal or wholesale trial does not count; begins its pilot means that the second bloc starts a pilot in which real payments are made in its digital currency, even if the pilot is not yet open to the public — for public use is a test for the first bloc only; formal issuance decision means a decision of the issuing body to proceed, not a pilot result.
Baseline: the prohibiting instrument and its date; the status of any bill; the pilot stage and the number of selected providers.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded: Prohibition and its stated expiry · regulation and pilot stage
Value at publication: Prohibition in force by executive order of 23 January 2025, with no stated expiry and no revoking order; the bill to enact it passed the House on 17 July 2025 and again, attached to S. 1318, on 29 April 2026, the Senate rejected a motion to proceed on 5 June 2026, and it was not enacted. Digital euro regulation not adopted; thirty-six payment providers selected on 14 July 2026 for a pilot due to start in the second half of 2027; pilot not started; no issuance decision taken (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 85% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026