The Ledger · Near — one to five years

From The Rational Prophet (Book Four of The Laws of Game Theory)

The bet

The bet

Nearly every member state of the European Union offers a certified wallet by the statutory deadline, while the share of adults actually holding one stays far below that a year later.

Win

At least four in five member states report a certified wallet available on time, and fewer than one in five adults hold an active wallet twelve months on.

Lose

Either half fails — widespread missed deadlines, or adoption above that level inside the year.

Expiry

Twelve months after the statutory deadline.

Check it

The list of certified wallets that the member states of the European Union notify and the European Commission publishes in the Official Journal; national adoption figures published by the issuing states.

In protocol form

Word for word from Appendix D of the book, the Prediction Protocol, where this bet is entered as Wallet compliance. References to sections (§) are to that appendix.

Universe

the twenty-seven member states of the union that legislated the deadline, the European Union.

Source

the list of certified European Digital Identity Wallets that member states notify and the European Commission publishes in the Official Journal of the European Union under the amended eIDAS regulation; national adoption reporting by the issuing states.

Definitions

the statutory deadline is 24 December 2026; offered means a wallet on that list and available to the public; active holder means an adult who has installed and completed enrolment, as the issuing state reports it.

Calculation

two counts, read twelve months after the deadline.

Baseline

states reporting readiness at publication, and the adoption figure where one exists.

Baseline at publication

Reading date of record: 10 October 2026

What is recorded

Member states with a wallet on the Commission's published list of certified wallets · adoption figure where published

Value at publication

None: no list of certified European Digital Identity Wallets had been published in the Official Journal; the statutory deadline is 24 December 2026; no adoption figure for a certified wallet exists (read 10 October 2026)

Author’s probability 60% that this bet scores HIT. Registered on 10 October 2026.

Sources

• EUR-Lex, Implementing Regulation (EU) 2025/849

Not investment advice. The bet describes what the book expects to happen; nothing here is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold anything.

Last reviewed 10 October 2026